Carriers block tethering
As of Monday Verizon is blocking all tether apps in the Android Marketplace. You can still search for the apps but trying to install them is impossible. While you can sideload the apps on to your phone at some point the carriers will move into other ways to stop tethering. The problem is it this is only the beginning of this fight. The carriers will keep pushing people for tether plans on their networks.
What I see is that there is no difference if you surf the web on your phone or share your connection with the laptop. The same bytes are sent to both devices. On the mobile side you used have to deal with mobile browsers that displayed a phone ready version of a website. Now the smart phones are able to display the same website you get on your computer. With Firefox Mobile you can change your user agent to be one of several different ones including masking it as a desktop browser.
The web on your smartphone is now no different than the web on your desktop. The cell carriers what you to think there is a difference but there isn’t. People who know this are confused on why there is an extra $20 fee to tether their laptop. The fee is another way that the carriers get more money from their subscribers. Now with the 4G rollout starting they will look to add even more fees to access faster speeds.l Hopefully one day there will be an end to the extra fees for the cell carriers.
The Fragmentation Discussion
Fragmentation is all around us is ways that we never realize. You own one particular brand of car and a new version of that comes out. That is fragmentation. Most of the time this happens and we don’t hear any complaining about how product X and product Y are fragmenting a certain industry, well unless your are in the technology field.
When people talk about fragmenting they usually refer to the Android OS for smartphones. Now depending on who you talk to either the Android OS is so fragmented that it is just a matter of time before people give up on it or fragmentation is no big deal. The problem is that Phone makers are able to choose which version of Android to place on phones. That is the bad part of this it allows some outdated version to be released side by side with newer versions. The problem with this is that unless the phone makers release the software updates you are stuck at your Android version.
Now this wouldn’t be a big deal except that upgrading is expensive and you sign a contract when you get your cell phone for typically two years. This means that your phone could be behind on software updates for the whole time you are on contract, but that may even apply to newer Android versions also. Look at the Galaxy S from Samsung it is on Android 2.1 and it’s 2.2 update is not being released in the US as of right now due to disputes between Samsung and the mobile network carriers (AT&T, Verizon, & T-Mobile). The exact details about what the dispute is over is hard to pin down, but the most common idea is Samsung wants to charge for the update.
The fragmentation for Android also cause it to have issues with it’s apps on the marketplace. Some apps can only run in 2.1 or later and others can can run on 1.6 or newer. Depending on what the phone makers want to do you may end up with a 1.6 version of android on that new smart phone and you won’t be able to upgrade to a newer version. The version controls is resting on phone manufacturers rather then Google. The real fragmentation is from the phone makers and carriers.
WWDC – Predicting the future
Tomorrow Apple will unveil the new iPhone that has been leaked already. We already know what iPhone OS 4.0 will do and look like. The only real questions are what will be the major announcements for the new iPhone based on the leaked models. Here are my four predictions.
1) 32GB is the new 16GB – The base model at $199 will carry a 32GB size and there will be a 64GB model at $299. This seems to follow the trend of the last couple of years where the previous iPhone’s largest capacity is the new entry level size.
2) Video chat for a price – AT&T will charge a price for video chat. It’ll be an extra $15 a month. This will be another chance for AT&T to make money on iPhone users consider that AT&T has new data plans to phase customers into. Why not make an unlimited video chat charge also. This will be available in about 4 months after launch on AT&T and at launch for the rest of the world.
3) iPhone ?? – The name of the iPhone will be interesting, but I will have it pegged as iPhone HD. Anything else with 4 in the name doesn’t make sense marketing wise because 4G cell tech is not out in wide use and the phone doesn’t have any. Although this is Apple so anything can happen.
4) Other networks – There will be no mention of other networks at today’s conference. Apple will remain committed to AT&T. If apple announces it’s going to another network it will be a long shot or the best kept secret of the new iPhone. Verizon and Sprint may say they want it on their networks, but there is not proof a CDMA version exists.
Verizon and the iPhone Rumors
The past few weeks there have been rumblings of the iPhone coming to Verizon. I don’t put any stock in those rumors. First there is the 5 year contract that Apple signed with AT&T. Second Apple would have to buy CDMA radios to put into the iPhone. At this point I don’t see that happening. Ther also have been nor rumors of Apple being supplied with CDMA radio’s at all. With the next generation cellular services within two years of mass deployment the timing doesn’t add up. When Verizon and AT&T start the mass rollout of LTE that is when that is when I would expect the iPhone to be on both networks. The timing and technology for Apple to bring the phone to more customers are not right yet, when it is right that’s when we’ll see the iPhone on different networks.
While all the networks are saying they would love to have the iPhone right now it is only available on AT&T’s network and I expect it to stay that way for a while longer. I do eventually see the iPhone branching to other networks, but nothing in the immediate future.
The failure of the Nexus One
Google launched the Nexus One back in early January. Running the latest version of the Android OS. It was a very advanced phone. Outing the Droid as the best phone around. Now about 74 days after being launched the Nexus One is a failure. Conservative estimates point to only 135,000 phones being shipped. In similar time frames after introduction both the iPhone and Droid sold a million plus units each. The major question that should be asked is why such low sales for the Nexus One?
The answer seems simple, but it is a bit complex. The first major issue is that it was launched on T-Mobile, the fourth largest mobile carrier in the US. This cuts the possible install base that they could reach down to only 34 million. Typical smartphone users are increasing, but they are still only a percentage of the overall user base. The second issue was that is was launched for sale on Google’s website. The online only offer even furthers to reduce the number of people who will get the phone. Most cell phone subscribers purchase their phones through a brick and motor store or through the carriers website. Since it’s launch the Nexus One has finally hit AT&T’s wireless network bands. To be fair you can’t by the phone with an AT&T contract, yet. Now Sprint has joined the Nexus One bandwagon, and that makes four. Verizon’s Nexus One was announced back on launch with a spring 2010 release date.
With the Nexus One slated to appear on all the major carriers will it see increased sales? Possibly, but not in any significant numbers. The problem is by the time it will hit these networks new and better Android devices will be already on them or just about to launch.
Verizon is rumored to be a few weeks away from launching a new HTC Android handset called the Incredible. The Incredible is supposed to be running a 1GHz Snapdragon processor underclocked to 768 MHz, with 512 DRAM and around 6GB of Flash RAM with an MicroSD expansion slot. The camera has been upgraded to 8MP from the Nexus One’s 5MP camera. The underclocked processor may turn off users, but it should be able to be restored back to it’s 1GHz speed with some 3rd party code. The incredible will also be sold in Verizon’s store along side the Droid and other Android phones. In my opinion this is a better buy then the Nexus One, unless the N-1 is priced very attractively (which I don’t think will happen).
Sprint is getting the HTC Supersonic later this summer. The Supersonic is going to be the first 4G Android handset running on Sprint’s WiMax network. It is supposed to be running a 1GHz Snapdragon processor with 1GB of ROM, it’s been called an HD2 running Android 2.1. More information is supposed to be released at CTIA when Sprint is rumored to announce the phone officially.
Now AT&T has just got it’s first android handset the Motorola Backflip. It has been gutted horribly, Google search ahs been replaced with Yahoo and you can only install apps from the Android Marketplace. This to me screams like AT&T wanted to get on the Android bandwagon and phone this in. I think it’s just iPhone love AT&T has, it will be interesting to see if a true Android device actually hits the store. T-Mobile has had the Nexus One from launch and it has not gather much sales. Will we see it in the stores? Who knows, but I have a feeling another powerful phone is being prepped for T-Mobile for a later launch. I consider AT&T and T-Mobile non factors for true Nexus One carrier support and I don’t think it will find a home on any of the other two carriers.
The Nexus One has failed, long live the Incredible/Supersonic.
